The hottest polycarbonate has rapid capacity expan

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Polycarbonate: fast expansion of production capacity requires caution in investment

polycarbonate: fast expansion of production capacity requires caution in investment

January 22, 2019

in recent years, China's polycarbonate industry has ushered in new development opportunities, and the production capacity has been increasing. Although the self-sufficiency rate of domestic polycarbonate production capacity is only about 50%, the industry is in a period of concentrated capacity release, and it is expected to rapidly develop into a situation of oversupply in 2-3 years. In this regard, experts warned that we should be vigilant against overcapacity and be cautious about investment in Chinese coatings

projects are intensively launched

after 2005, China has set off a construction boom of polycarbonate, and world-class manufacturers Teijin, Mitsubishi, Bayer (now keschuang) have successively invested and built factories in China. In 2015, Ningbo zhetidafeng Chemical Co., Ltd. used its own non phosgene technology to build a new 100000 ton/year production unit, which rewrites the history of no independent technology polycarbonate production unit above 10000 tons in China

according to the "2018 blue book on the development of China's polycarbonate industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "blue book") released by the polycarbonate branch of China synthetic resin supply and Marketing Association in August 2018, China has become the world's largest polycarbonate producer. By the end of June 2018, China's polycarbonate production capacity has increased from 80000 tons/year to 945000 tons/year, which can be measured by stretching from 4 in 2013. With the 100000 tons/year production capacity put into operation by lihuayi last July, the total production capacity has reached 1045000 tons/year, accounting for about 20% of the total global production capacity

according to statistics, the domestic polycarbonate output in 2018 was more than 700000 tons; The net import volume is about 1.31 million tons, which has remained above 1 million tons for more than 10 consecutive years

however, there will be a large number of capacity intensive releases in the future to fill this supply gap. In 2018 alone, many related projects were signed and started construction: Hainan Huasheng new material 2 × The 260000 T/a non phosgene polycarbonate phase I project was commenced, and Jilin Xingyun Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. of Jilin chemical industry group, Zhongsha (Tianjin) Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Pingmei Shenma Group also signed 240000 T/A, 260000 T/A and 800000 T/a polycarbonate projects respectively. According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 2million T/a polycarbonate plants under construction or about to start construction in China, and nearly 4million T/a production capacity is under planning

according to the statistics of polycarbonate branch of China synthetic resin supply and Marketing Association, China's polycarbonate production capacity is expected to exceed 3million tons/year by 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 30%. According to the statistics of devices under construction only, there will be 14 polycarbonate production enterprises in China by 2020 and more than 16 in 2022

demand growth is stable

after years of development, China has become the world's largest consumer of polycarbonate

according to the blue book, the apparent consumption of polycarbonate in China in 2017 was about 1.8 million tons, accounting for more than 40% of the total global consumption. With the steady development of domestic economy and the implementation of supply side reform, the consumption structure of polycarbonate in various application fields in China has not changed significantly, such as PLC touch screen control, sampling, display and other structural changes, and the demand growth rate will remain at 3% to 5%. If the growth rate is estimated at 4%, the domestic demand for polycarbonate is expected to be 2.1 million to 2.2 million tons by 2022. With imports, China will have an oversupply of polycarbonate by 2022

beware of overcapacity

ZHENG long, chairman of China synthetic resin supply and Marketing Association, said that the "blowout" growth of polycarbonate production capacity will promote the rapid development of China's polycarbonate industry, significantly improve the self-sufficiency rate and meet the domestic market demand. On the other hand, new problems will also arise. The unequal growth rate of domestic polycarbonate production capacity and demand growth rate, as well as the repeated construction of a large number of homogenization projects, although they can meet the market demand for mass production of medium and low-end products, they may also lead to overcapacity in the industry as a whole. In addition, at present, polycarbonate with high quality and special performance is still the market of a few foreign-funded enterprises with strong technical strength, and domestic enterprises have not made significant breakthroughs

in this regard, the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation put forward an early warning for polycarbonate for the first time in the production capacity early warning report of key petrochemical products released in May 2018. The report points out that China's polycarbonate has maintained an average annual growth rate of more than 20% for four consecutive years, and the capacity utilization rate has also reached 72.7%. However, in the next three years, domestic polycarbonate projects will be invested and constructed intensively, and the growth of downstream electronic and electrical, building plate fields will be slow. Traditional optical discs will be impacted by the new way of communication in line with the industrial direction, and the demand for polycarbonate will also continue to shrink. Therefore, the polycarbonate industry needs to guard against overcapacity. At present, the annual production capacity is 10000 tons

ZHENG long stressed that the polycarbonate industry should face up to the real situation of the current industrial development, invest rationally, and avoid the loss of huge investment. The vicious competition caused by excessive investment in the polyoxymethylene industry should be a lesson for the past

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