Discussion on the development situation of China's

2022-08-17
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Discussion and analysis of the development situation of China's construction machinery in March 2012

discussion and analysis of the development situation of China's construction machinery in March 2012

China Construction machinery information

Guide: the recovery of sales data in March makes the construction machinery industry seem to usher in a long lost spring. According to survey statistics, in March 2012, a total of 23248 excavators were sold by 28 major excavator manufacturers, an increase of 48.85% month on month. Affected by the slowdown in investment, the strengthening of macro-control in the real estate industry and other factors

the recovery of sales data in March makes the construction machinery industry seem to usher in a long lost spring. According to survey statistics, in March 2012, a total of 23248 excavators were sold by 28 major excavator manufacturers, an increase of 48.85% month on month

affected by factors such as the slowdown in investment and the strengthening of macro-control in the real estate industry, the sales of excavators have declined seriously since May and June last year, and the whole construction machinery industry seems to have entered winter. When the sales data showed month on month growth in March this year, some insiders exclaimed: the inflection point is coming

is this really the case? Feng fuzhang, an analyst at CSC, told that it was too early to talk about the inflection point of the industry, and the real inflection point might come in May. At that time, the adjustment of the policy will bring about an increase in infrastructure investment, which will form a real pull on the demand for construction machinery

it is noted that the current undervaluation of major listed companies in the construction machinery industry has also become a reason to attract the attention of securities analysts, and industry leading companies Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion Heavy Industry have become recommended targets

the data in March picked up the "illusion"

in March 2012, a total of 23248 excavators were sold by 28 major excavator manufacturers, an increase of 48 month on month. Suppliers asked for time 85%。 As for the reasons for the growth, some analysts believe that with the advent of spring, the weather has warmed up, and a large number of engineering projects have begun to resume work. At the same time, the number of new projects in various regions has increased, and the downstream demand for excavators has gradually increased. After the "two sessions", local financial funds will also be in place one after another, injecting a shot of strength into the market

after experiencing rapid growth in the first quarter of 2011, due to the slowdown in fixed investment and downstream demand, the growth rate of the planned sales of major construction machinery products began to decline from the second quarter. This downward trend continued until the first two months of this year. Data show that in the first two months of 2012, the downward trend continued: the sales of excavators, truck cranes, loaders and bulldozers, the main construction machinery products, fell by 34.2%, 19.0%, 18.2% and 44.0% year-on-year respectively

the recovery of sales data also makes the market seem to see a first-line turnaround. However, the survey found that the rebound in sales data is more likely to be an "illusion"

while the sales data in March 2012 showed month on month growth, due to the high base of last year, the year-on-year sales decline still reached 47.34%. A number of securities analysts also pointed out that the current sales data of excavators are still relatively weak, and the real demand in the downstream is not strong

Wu Huimin, a researcher of CICC, pointed out after grassroots research that, as a leading indicator, the excavator market is still depressed. Dealers generally reported that the sales volume in March was basically flat on a month on month basis, with a year-on-year decline of more than 40%. There was no significant recovery in downstream operation, and the market was still at a low point

Wu Huimin believes that the reasons for the above phenomena are as follows: the infrastructure project with the greatest relevance to earth moving machinery has not been resumed in a large area; The nationwide bad weather in the early stage delayed the commencement of some projects; In the same period last year, production and sales were booming, with a high base

Feng fuzhang, an analyst at CSC, also said that the arrival of the industry inflection point still needs to wait for some time

the inflection point of the second quarter is expected.

if it is not a real recovery now, when will the inflection point of the construction machinery industry come

according to the grassroots research results of Wu Huimin, a researcher of CICC, most dealers tend to be optimistic about the industry demand after April. They believe that factors such as the improved weather nationwide and the release of investment demand squeezed by local governments after the change of office are conducive to the resumption and new construction of the project. Rural construction demand and water conservancy construction demand will also be gradually released. This year, "the peak season is not prosperous, and the off-season will not be weak", The year-round balance is still expected

Wu Huimin believes that from a fundamental point of view, the inflection point of the industry has not yet emerged, and the trend investment opportunities of construction machinery still need to wait

Feng fuzhang, an analyst at CSC, told that if there was an inflection point, it should be in May. On the one hand, the base number of the industry in the same period last year after May is relatively small. On the other hand, the second quarter is the time for policy consideration. The real fine-tuning of policies is a high probability event. If policies are implemented, infrastructure investment should be the primary choice, which will really stimulate the demand for construction machinery

the fixed investment data of March this year released by the National Bureau of statistics on April 9 also shows this trend of infrastructure investment growth. In March, 2012, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment rebounded, among which the growth rate of investment in electricity, gas and water, transportation and water conservancy, environmental protection and municipal administration rose. Gaoyuan, a macroeconomic analyst at Haitong Securities (600837), predicts that with the gradual increase of national budget funds, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment in April is expected to continue to improve slightly

Sany leads the sales champion

from January to March 2012, the excavator sales volume of Sany Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. is still in the champion position

since Sany's excavator sales exceeded Komatsu's since June 2011, strain control has been the monthly sales champion for consecutive months. It is the only manufacturer with sales of more than 4000 units this month and new material industries such as graphene based lithium batteries, supercapacitors, cobalt oxide bipolar temperature range materials, etc. formed an early range, with sales of more than 7000 units in the first quarter

in the whole excavator industry, the market share of state-owned brands is still improving

the data shows that from the sales situation from January to March 2012, the share of domestic brands has rebounded, increasing to about 42%. The market share of Japanese brands fell slightly to about 27%, while the performance of European and American brands and Korean brands was relatively stable, maintaining at about 12% and 18% respectively

in addition, when the domestic market is relatively depressed, export has become an important support for enterprise sales. From January to March 2012, 28 major excavator manufacturers in China sold 44087 excavators, a year-on-year decrease of 41.87%, and 42394 excavators in China, a year-on-year decrease of 43.42%. However, from January to March, China exported 1693 excavators, a year-on-year increase of 85.64%, which was quite eye-catching

from the perspective of models, from January to March 2012, China's 28 major excavator manufacturers sold 18553 sets of small excavators with a cumulative sales of 13T or less, accounting for 42.08% of the total sales of excavators. In addition, the proportion of large excavation above 30t has also increased; However, the market share of traditional dominant tonnage 20t~30t products has shrunk compared with 2011. On the whole, the product structure of excavators in China shows a trend of shifting to the two ends of small excavation and large excavation

large excavators are also an important part of the layout of Zoomlion and other industry leaders in recent years. Zoomlion invested to raise funds. "In addition, the medium and large excavator industry upgrading project of 600million yuan is currently under construction. Shanhe intelligent also invested 757million yuan in major technological transformation projects of medium and large excavators

while the sales performance ranks in the forefront of the market, Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion Heavy Industry have also become the objects recommended by securities analysts because of their undervaluation advantage

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