Discussion on the development prospect of the hott

2022-08-15
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Since the reform and opening up, Sichuan's power industry has made considerable progress, especially during the "Ninth Five Year Plan" period, the installed capacity of the province has expanded rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 12.5%, which has fundamentally changed the long-standing serious power shortage situation and eliminated the "bottleneck" constraints of power on national economic and social development. By the end of 2000, the installed capacity of the province had reached 17098mw, including 1108mw of hydropower and 6090mw of thermal power. At the end of 2000, the province generated 55.6 billion kw of electricity, sent 3.5 billion kwh of electricity and consumed 52.1 billion kwh of electricity in the province. However, the current electricity surplus in Sichuan is a low-level, structural and temporary surplus, because the per capita electricity consumption of the province in 2000 was less than 60% of the national average, and the gap is larger than that of eastern provinces and cities and developed countries; In addition, the proportion of hydropower in Sichuan is too large, the regulation performance of reservoirs is poor, and the proportion of small thermal power is too large, which has serious power supply structural contradictions. Therefore, the development of Sichuan electric power industry still has a long way to go

The implementation of the national western development strategy has brought a rare opportunity for Sichuan's economic leap forward development. The provincial Party committee and the provincial government have formulated the general strategic goal of realizing Sichuan's economic and social catch-up leap forward development. One of the keys to achieving the general goal is whether electricity can meet the needs. Sichuan is extremely rich in water resources and relatively lack of coal reserves. Can we speed up the construction of hydropower to meet the needs of future national economic power load growth, not necessarily on thermal power, let alone nuclear power? This paper discusses the answer to this question through comprehensive analysis

2 Sichuan power load forecast from 2000 to 2020

from 1980 to 1990, the average annual growth rate of Sichuan (including Chongqing) GDP was 9.39%, the average annual growth rate of power consumption was 7.3%, and the power elasticity coefficient was 0.77; From 1991 to 1995, the average annual growth rate of Sichuan's GDP was 11.21%, the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption was 10.61%, and the power elasticity coefficient was 0.95%; From 1996 to 2000, the average annual growth rate of Sichuan's GDP was 8.8%, the average annual growth rate of electricity consumption was 4%, and the power elasticity coefficient was 0.45; The overall goal of Sichuan's economic and social development during the Tenth Five Year Plan period is: the average annual growth rate of GDP is more than 8%, and by 2005, the GDP calculated at 2000 prices will reach more than 589billion yuan; It is estimated that from 2006 to 2020, Sichuan's economy will develop faster on the basis of laying a better foundation during the Tenth Five Year Plan period, and the growth rate of power consumption will also be faster. From the situation of Sichuan itself and the situation at home and abroad, it is necessary to maintain a power elasticity coefficient close to 1 during the period of great economic development

From 2000 to 2020, the power load demand forecast results of Sichuan are shown in Table 1. The high, medium and low power load levels in the table are obtained through comprehensive analysis, comparison and necessary adjustment based on the forecast results of various methods such as output value unit consumption method. It is concluded from the prediction that 200 facilitates the batch experiment; The power load of the whole province was 12500 ~ 13700mw in five years, 17500 ~ 20600mw in 2010, 24500 ~ 30980mw in 2015 and 34300 ~ 46580mw in 2020

3 analysis of the total installed capacity of hydropower in Sichuan from 2000 to 2020

. Sichuan is the region with the richest water resources in China. There are more than 1300 rivers and rivers in the province, and 737 hydropower resources above 10MW. The theoretical reserve of hydropower resources in the province is 142688.5mw, and the generating capacity is 12499.51 billion kwh, accounting for 21.11% of the country. The technically exploitable capacity is 103459.6mw, and the generating capacity is 556.9 billion kwh, accounting for 27.33% of the country, The economically exploitable capacity is 76110mw, and the generating capacity is 401.8 billion kwh. From the 1930s to 2000, after more than 70 years of struggle, hydropower has developed 11008mw, accounting for 10.63% of the technically exploitable capacity and 14.5% of the economically exploitable capacity. Therefore, Sichuan has great potential for hydropower development. According to the current situation of hydropower projects under construction in Sichuan Province and the hydropower construction plan during the Tenth Five Year Plan period, the utilization of hydropower unit experimental machines put into operation in Sichuan during the Tenth Five Year Plan Period: the impact test is very sensitive to the organizational shortcomings of metal materials, and the capacity of hydropower units put into operation during the Eleventh Five Year Plan period is 304mw. The capacity of hydropower units put into operation during the Eleventh Five Year Plan period is 8829mw, and the installed hydropower capacity of Sichuan will reach 22877mw by the end of 2010. After 2010, if Sichuan's hydropower is still developing at a high speed of about 8% from 2001 to 2010, the installed hydropower capacity of Sichuan Province will reach 32980mw by the end of 2015 and 47540mw by the end of 2020

4 analysis of thermal power installed capacity required by Sichuan main power plant from 2000 to 2020

. Due to the four principals: Published in 2014, 3? 15 quality inspection work focuses on children's books and teaching aids. Most of Sichuan hydropower stations are run-off power stations. By the end of 2000, run-off power stations had reached 7008.3mw, accounting for 63.63% of the hydropower capacity. From the perspective of projects under construction and planned construction, run-off hydropower stations are still dominant. Therefore, Sichuan Hydropower has the problems of poor regulation performance and wide output difference in wet and dry seasons for a long time at present and in the future, According to statistical data and the situation of projects under construction and planned construction, the guaranteed output (or working capacity) of hydropower stations in Sichuan will be about 53% of the installed capacity of hydropower in the dry season for a long time in the future. In order to solve the contradiction of congenital shortage of hydropower, it is necessary to install enough thermal power units (without considering other energy units) to cooperate with Hydropower to make up for the shortage of hydropower in dry season. Without considering the purchased electricity in the dry season, the minimum working capacity of thermal power units required to ensure the power load demand and safe operation of electricity in the province should be the difference between the power load of Sichuan Province and the guaranteed output of hydropower in the dry season. Based on this, and considering that the reserve capacity of thermal power units in the dry season is low, which is about 15% (usually the reserve capacity of thermal power units is 20%), the minimum thermal power installed capacity required by Sichuan main power plant from 2000 to 2020 can be calculated (Table 2). According to the Tenth Five Year Plan of Sichuan electric power industry, the installed capacity of thermal power in Sichuan Province was 6090mw at the end of 2000, 7070mw at the end of 2005, and 8910mw at the end of 2010. Therefore, at 201

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